ABN AMRO Bank N.V Metals Monthly is produced by VM Group for ABN AMRO Bank N.V. As well as incisive commentaries, interviews and analyses of key global events in metals, it also features a page of comprehensive news, analysis, data and price forecasts for each of ten metals -- gold, silver, platinum, palladium, aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc and steel.
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In the September 2011 issue of Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine the immediate prospects for the copper price with special attention to whether Chinese copper imports will grow or fall over the next few months. We also identify significant downside risk to the price through 2012 and 2013, on the expectation of recession in the advanced economies, and a sharp increase in mine supply. That said, we expect the copper price to find support through scaled-down Chinese buying, with prices unlikely to yield more than 10%-20% from current levels for any sustained period of time.
We have revised lower our base metals price forecasts in light of the global slowdown in demand anticipated in 2012. We expect copper to average $7,300/t,from a previous $8,563/t, and nickel and tin to average $20,867/t and $19,708/t, respectively, from $23,663/t and $27,354/t. The downward revision in our price forecasts is reflected by weaker supply-demand fundamentals, with copper now forecast to be in surplus in 2012.
In the August 2011 issue of Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine the economic backdrop, including the outlook for growth in advanced economies and emerging markets, and the impact this will have on metals markets. There is a great deal of near-term uncertainty, and doubts over the recovery have changed the previously held bullish outlook over the metals markets to one of risk aversion. Gold and silver are likely to thrive in this environment while industrial metals will see downside risk.
We have revised our short to longer term precious metal price forecasts in light of this slowdown in growth in the advanced economies and consequential impact on growth in the emerging markets. We now expect the gold price to to average over $2,200/oz by 2014, while silver and palladium will average more than $60/oz and almost $1,200/oz, respectively. Platinum will fare worse due to the the incremental replacement by palladium in gasoline-based autocatalysts. That said, it too will average more than $2,000/oz in both 2012 and 2013.
In the July 2011 issue of Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we look at the prospects for the aluminium market. Aluminium has been in big surplus for the past few years but – assuming no double dip recession – we expect this to reverse over the coming decade, with a potential 13 Mt/year shortfall by 2020. Strange as it may seem today, aluminium needs new capacity builds. The only way this is going to happen is if the aluminium price rises significantly from where it is today.
We have revised higher our silver supply residual in 2011 and 2012, on the basis that offtake via exchange traded products has been poor so far in 2011 and we expect this to carry through into next year. Our nickel surplus for 2011 has been revised down to 16,000t in 2011, from 29,000t previously, on the back of project delays and an expected restocking cycle come late Q3 11.
In the June 2011 issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine the performance of the base metal exchange traded products (ETP) launched by ETF Securities in December 2010 and May 2011 on the London Stock Exchange. Clearly these products, especially the copper, tin and nickel ETPs introduced on 10 December 2010, have failed to live up to expectations and a major re-think about their potential impact to final market balances in 2011 and beyond is warranted. We have revised our longer term price forecasts for gold, taking into account the debt levels in the US and eurozone, inflation concerns in both advanced and emerging markets and overall lack of confidence in fiat currency. Our copper market supply/demand balance has also been revised lower on disappointing Chinese demand, sluggish US and eurozone growth and the less than expected offtake in the copper ETP. Meanwhile, we have adjsuted down our aluminium market surplus to 0.36 Mt in 2011, from 0.66 Mt, due to impressive global demand growth.
In the May 2011 issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we investigate the concerns allied to US economic recovery and China’s fight against rising inflation and what this might mean for base metals prices in the short and medium term. What does appear clear is that the market is currently looking for direction following recent poor US data and lower industrial output rates and copper imports into China, and that the approaching northern hemisphere summer period offers a good opportunity to take profit.
In the April 2011 issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine the evidence indicating that the nickel price may have already peaked this year. On fundamentals alone the nickel market must ready itself for the potential flood of new supply from new and expanded traditional sources, the challenging high pressure acid leach projects and accelerating Chinese nickel pig iron production capacity.
In the March 2011 issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and North Africa regions and the justifiable extent oil prices have risen and consequently impacted those of the base and precious metals. The article also looks at the various scenarios that may play out and the likely impact to prices ahead.
In the February 2011 issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine palladium and its likely outperformance of platinum for the third successive year in 2011. Gasoline car sales in the emerging markets will yet again be the primary driver and this will seep into investment demand growth, over and above that of platinum. This will see the palladium price break $900/oz and beyond.
In the January 2011 issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine the dynamics that will come to shape the metals markets in 2011. Although sentiment is bullish for now, there are headwinds that just might derail the expected rise in both base and precious metals. Of these, we identify a stronger US dollar on economic recovery, potential interest rate hikes later this year, eurozone debt distress and the impact of attempts to mitigate inflation in China.
The December Metals Monthly published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank. Is the world about to run out of rare earths? Or will the strong price rises in recent years evoke a sufficiently strong supply-side response to fend off disaster? That forms the focus of the main feature in the December issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank. Although we expect the decline in China’s rare earth exports will be met by a vigorous supply response from elsewhere, deficits outside of China are inevitable in certain rare earths, due to the strong growth in advanced technology (for which rare earths are vital) and their relative scarcity in known mineral resources
The November Metals Monthly published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank examines the relative pricing prospects for copper and aluminium in 2011 from a fundamental perspective. Copper’s supply-side difficulties will see it outperform all other base metals in 2011 (with perhaps the exception of tin) while aluminium will lag the pack. Together they will cap and floor the trajectory of base metals prices in 2011 and the copper:aluminium ratio will extend up to 3.7 for the first time.
The October Metals Monthly published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank examines the price drivers in the latest metals’ rally in the context of the potential macroeconomic environment in 2011. We also publish our quarterly price forecasts through to Q4 2011 and pick the metals we view as having the best prospects to outperform in 2011, including tin, copper, the PGMs and, later in 2011, zinc.
The September issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO, takes an in-depth look at the recent spike in the tin price and the prospects of a sustained bull run in the market.
The August issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO, looks at the recent collapse of the dry bulk shipping market, and examines what this crash in carrier charges might mean for bulk commodities – notably iron ore and coking coal.
The July issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO, examines whether resource nationalism is back on the cards as a risk to metals and mining. It looks at current global trends in resource taxation and policy - with a specific focus on Australia's attempt to impose a 40% resource profits super tax, the Democratic Republic of Congo's confiscation of foreign owned mining assets and the new mining law pending in India.
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