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Monday 19th July 2010

Thursday 15th July 2010

  • ABN AMRO/VM Group Metals Monthly - July 2010 | Press release

    • The July issue of the Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO, examines whether resource nationalism is back on the cards as a risk to metals and mining. It looks at current global trends in resource taxation and policy - with a specific focus on Australia's attempt to impose a 40% resource profits super tax, the Democratic Republic of Congo's confiscation of foreign owned mining assets and the new mining law pending in India.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Wednesday 14th July 2010

Tuesday 13th July 2010

  • ABN AMRO/VM Group White Book - July 2010 | Press release

    • The ABN AMRO/VM White Book is released/ In this issue of the White Book, we examine the evolution and increasing complex nature of autocatalyst design and usage and its implications for PGM offtake. The automobile sector provides the most important end use for platinum, palladium and rhodium, and while the advance of the PGM-free electric car is inevitable in the carbon conscious world, the combustion engine will underpin PGM prices for many decades to come. This will be led chiefly by the emerging economies, whose car markets are set to continue their rapid expansion. this month we look at the arrival of the GM Trojan Horse in Europe.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 12th July 2010

Friday 9th July 2010

  • ABN AMRO/VM Group Energy Monthly July | Press release

    • We argue in the July edition of the VM Group/ABN AMRO Energy Monthly that China’s appetite for coal will create all kinds of stresses and strains in the global energy mix – not least by keeping coal prices steadily rising for the foreseeable future.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

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Friday 25th June 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly June | Press release

    • The June issue is a Sugar Quarterly, which contains our first estimate for the global sugar balance for the 2010-2011 season. This segments the supply-demand balance on a quarterly basis within an annual October-September global crop year. Our statistics are expressed as metric tonnes raw value, abbreviated to MTRV.1 For the 2010-2011 season we estimate an overall global sugar surplus of 5.64 million MTRV. Within that we envisage by the end of the season an overall deficit of 8.67 million tonnes in the Asia region, although in Q3 2011 we estimate that the Asian region’s deficit could mount to as high as 13.92 million tonnes, again MTRV.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Wednesday 23rd June 2010

  • June: The fertiliser complex: future risk | Press release

    • The Geopolitical Risk Quarterly takes a fresh approach to commodity markets by analysing the supply and demand risks faced by a particular commodity or commodity-related issue. In this issue we focus on global fertiliser markets. Fertiliser is potentially the key metacommodity of the 21st century, as its production and use involves some aspect of every part of the commodity complex, including crops, energy and mineral extraction. Although we face the prospect of ample fertiliser supply in the next few years, the longer-term outlook is for much higher fertiliser demand.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Tuesday 22nd June 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Silver Book - June | Press release

    • The silver market is heading for structural change; that is the theme of the Silver Book June 2010. New and emerging end uses that depend on silver’s unique conductive and antimicrobial properties will see the huge surplus that has been present in the silver market for many years erode significantly from now to 2020.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 21st June 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Metals Monthly June | Press release

    • The June issue of the Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Metals Monthly looks at the gold price which is currently trading at or close to record highs in leading currencies, continuing a trend that has seen it inch steadily upwards since Q1 2009. This latest rally is perhaps not surprising, given the background macroeconomic uncertainties but it’s notable that it has happened despite a strengthening in the US dollar. When everything else turns sour, gold usually does well – and so it is again today.. The report analyses developments in the global precious and base metals, as well as steel markets and contains our updated price forecasts and analyses of supply and demand for each metal, as well as an examination of fund activity.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 14th June 2010

Thursday 10th June 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland /VM Group Energy Monthly June | Press release

    • The June edition of the VM Group/Fortis Bank Nederland Energy Monthly. As the price of crude oil hovers between short-term doubts over the nature of the economic recovery and long-term anxiety about sufficient supply, energy markets have rarely been in such flux. Refiners are facing their toughest commercial challenges for decades, while oil producers are scratching their heads over the implications of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Governments in many advanced economies are facing the political nightmare of having to force severe austerity programmes on populations that have become accustomed to credit-supported comfort, and no where is this more true than of the UK, where the embryonic Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition faces challenges on many fronts, one of the most pressing being how to prevent a power-supply crunch enveloping the country over the next decade.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Tuesday 1st June 2010

Tuesday 1st June 2010

Monday 24th May 2010

Friday 21st May 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly May | Press release

    • The May issue is a Coffee Quarterly, which contains adjustments to our previous estimates for the global coffee supply/demand balance for the season ahead, that of 2010-2011. We now expect a slightly smaller arabica surplus, of 6.67m bags, and a smaller robusta surplus, too, of 2.98m bags. This adjustment results from a combination of slightly bigger demand, both for arabica and robusta (79.32m bags and 50.71m bags respectively, v. our previous estimate of 79.12m bags and 50.58m bags), as well as slightly reduced expected production from Brazil and Central America.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 17th May 2010

Friday 14th May 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Metals Monthly May | Press release

    • The main focus in the May issue of the Metals Monthly examines the role the benchmark system has played since the Second World War and the paradigm shift in attitudes and market dynamics the new pricing mechanism will bring. The report analyses developments in the global precious and base metals, as well as steel markets and contains our updated price forecasts and analyses of supply and demand for each metal, as well as an examination of fund activity.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Gold Hedging Report | Press release

    • The Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Gold Hedging Report for Q1 2010 is now available. It was widely expected that global gold dehedging would slow sharply in Q1 10, given the much smaller size of the global hedge book. Data for the quarter shows the fall in hedge positions was just 0.8 Moz (26t) on a delta-adjusted basis, far below the 4.0 Moz reduction seen in Q4 09. Nevertheless the trend decline continues and this means the global total is now just 7.1 Moz (220t).

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Tuesday 11th May 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland /VM Group Energy Monthly May | Press release

    • In the May edition of the VM Group/Fortis Bank Nederland Energy Monthly we turn the spotlight on China and is urgent need to secure future energy supplies. China’s energy consumption has more than doubled in the past decade and there is no sign of this trend growth slackening.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 10th May 2010

Wednesday 5th May 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Gold Mine Cost Report - Q4 2009

    • The Gold Mine Cost Report is produced as part of a joint venture between Fortis Bank Nederland and VM Group in conjunction with Haliburton Mineral Services. It augments our other gold reports especially the Yellow Book and the Gold Hedging Report

    For background information on the report, click here.

Tuesday 4th May 2010

Monday 26th April 2010

Friday 23rd April 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly April | Press release

    • The April issue of the Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly report considers the phenomenal growth of genetically modified crops in many parts of the world – except the European Union. But is the EU becoming more willing to embrace GM crops, following a recent decision by the European Commission to approve – against much internal opposition – the cultivation of a GM potato? In addition, the report each month will carry an informative commodity-related feature.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 19th April 2010

Friday 16th April 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Metals Monthly April | Press release

    • The main focus in the April issue of the Metals Monthly in April examines the slow fading away of Western world aluminium production, juxtaposed with the rising strength of that of the Middle East and Asia In addition to this lead feature, the report analyses developments in the global precious and base metals, as well as steel markets and contains our updated price forecasts and analyses of supply and demand for each metal, as well as an examination of fund activity.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Wednesday 14 April 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland /VM Group Energy Monthly April | Press release

    • In the April issue of The Energy Monthly, published by VM Group in partnership Fortis Bank Nederland. The main feature this month is on Iraq, its ambitions to scale-up dramatically its oil production, and how that might reverberate within OPEC.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 12 April 2010

Tuesday 6 April 2010

Monday 29 March 2010

Tuesday 23rd March 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly March | Press release

    • The March issue is a Sugar Quarterly, which contains our new-style method of analysing the global sugar market. This segments the supply-demand balance on a quarterly basis within an annual October-September global crop year. Our statistics are expressed as metric tonnes raw value, abbreviated to MTRV.1 For the 2009-2010 season we estimate an overall global sugar deficit of 5.68m (million) MTRV. Within that we envisage shortfalls in Asia, the engine of sugar demand – that region as a whole we estimate will be in deficit of 19.55m (million) MTRV across the whole of the 2009-2010 season. In addition, the report each month will carry an informative commodity-related feature. In March we consider the current (now apparently fading) El Niño switching to a La Niña, and the implications for agricommodities.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 15 March 2010

Friday 19th February 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Metals Monthly March | Press release

    • The March issue of the Metals Monthly, published today by VM Group in partnership with Fortis Bank Nederland, overall theme is the noticeable recovery in the OECD economies and continued Chinese demand strength signals a busy year ahead for industrial metals. In addition to this lead feature, the report analyses developments in the global precious and base metals, as well as steel markets and contains our updated price forecasts and analyses of supply and demand for each metal, as well as an examination of fund activity.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

Monday 15 March 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 9 March 2010

    • The Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 9 March 2010

    • Fortis Bank Nederland /VM Group Energy Monthly March | Press release

      • In the March issue of The Energy Monthly, published by VM Group in partnership Fortis Bank Nederland, looks at the potential of shale gas, a technology as old as the hills but which offers an increasingly viable solution to energy needs in the US and possibly Europe.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 8 March 2010

  • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 2 March 2010

    • The Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.

    For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 2 March 2010

    Friday 26th February 2010

    • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly February | Press release

      • The February 2010 edition of the Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodities Monthly, which reports on and analyses key developments in the global markets for agricommodities. This new report provides on a rolling quarterly basis in-depth analyses of cocoa, coffee and sugar. The February issue is a Coffee Quarterly, and presents our first tentative estimates for the global coffee supply-demand balance for the upcoming, 2010-2011 season.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 19th February 2010

    Monday 15th February 2010

    • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Renewable Energy/Carbon Monthly February | Press release

      • In the February 2010 edition of The Renewable Energy/Carbon Monthly, produced by the VM Group in partnership Fortis Bank Nederland and published today, we consider the implications of this major joint venture in the world of ethanol. We also argue that, although the climate change summit in Copenhagen in December has been widely panned as a failure, it may go down in history as an important stepping stone to a much more successful outcome in another climate forum, scheduled to be staged in Mexico in December this year. And we forecast a continued stagnation in carbon prices in the short term, rising to €15/t when industrial activity picks up later this year. The report also contains a detailed roundup and analysis of all the most important events in renewable energy matters and carbon markets in the past month.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 12th February 2010

    • Fortis Bank Nederland /VM Group Energy Monthly February | Press release

      • In the February issue of The Energy Monthly, published by VM Group in partnership Fortis Bank Nederland, looks at the world's crude oil refiners are living through harsh times, with average profitability today about one fifth of what it was this time last year. This is causing not just headaches for the major global refiners within the OECD, but heartaches for their shareholders, as profits slump and market capitalisations are undermined. This icy chill running through the established global majors is unlikely to improve very rapidly, as new players in Asia - in China and India especially - come increasingly to the fore. As well as the examination of the global refining industry prospects, the report (as usual) covers the most important energy-related news of the past month.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Metals Monthly February | Press release

      • The February issue of the *Metals Monthly*, published today by VM Group in partnership with Fortis Bank Nederland, looks at the consequences if the US dollar is poised on the brink of a new bull market. We find that a protracted period of dollar strength would push metals’ prices lower than they are today – which would be bad news for US investors – but the impact is less obvious when measured in other currencies. In addition to this lead feature, the report analyses developments in the global precious and base metals, as well as steel markets and contains our updated price forecasts and analyses of supply and demand for each metal, as well as an examination of fund activity.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 8th February 2010

    Tuesday 1st February 2010

    • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly January | Press release

      • The January issue of the Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly report begins with an in-depth look at the outlook for cocoa. We estimate the 2009-2010 season will see a global production deficit of 170,000t. Moreover, in our first, tentative estimate for the 2010-2011 season, we see another, albeit smaller, deficit, of 48,000t.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 29th January 2010

    • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Metals Monthly January | Press release

      • VM Group in partnership Fortis Bank Nederland today publishes the January 2010 edition of Metals Monthly, which each month will report on and analyse developments within the global markets for precious and base metals'` markets and steel. Each report contains our updated price forecasts and analyses of supply and demand for each metal, as well as an examination of fund activity and a headline feature. In the January issue this feature casts the spotlight on the astonishing rise of metals' prices in 2009, and their performance during 2000-2009. We also give our estimates for likely eventual offtake of the US ETFS platinum and palladium products, launched on 8 January 2010.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 25th January 2010

    • Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group Renewable Energy/Carbon Monthly January | Press release

      • VM Group in partnership Fortis Bank Nederland today publishes the January 2010 edition of The Renewable Energy/Carbon Monthly, which reports on and analyses key developments in the global markets for renewable energy and carbon trading. As well as keeping readers up to date with news and views on these growing markets, the report each month carries a feature that gives an incisive in-depth analysis of a particular event. In January we look at the latest round of licensing for offshore wind power in the UK, in which although around $122bn is likely to be invested during the construction phase of the world's biggest wind power scheme, the bulk of these licenses are going to non-UK companies.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    • Fortis Bank Nederland /VM Group Energy Monthly January | Press release

      • VM Group in partnership Fortis Bank Nederland today publishes the January edition of The Energy Monthly, which each month will report on and analyse the key developments in the main global energy markets. As well as covering the most important news, each month will carry a feature that examines more deeply a topical issue in energy. This month, we highlight the failure of the EU to act with a common front when it comes to energy policy, and argue that this gives the EU's biggest external energy supplier - Russia - the upper hand, and that this threatens to pose long-term problems.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 18th January 2010

    Tuesday 11th January 2010

    Tuesday 21st December 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly December

      • The December issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly gives our usual insight into the short and longer term outlook for precious and base metals, as well as an update of hedge fund performance. The analysis feature examines whether we can expect more of the same from China in 2010, relative to 2009, when it single handedly supported the rally in base metals prices, and our focus looks at the prospects of the iron ore market in the short to longer term.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 18th December 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Agricommodities Monthly December

      • The December issue of our monthly Agricommodities Report, produced in conjunction with BNP Paribas Fortis, is a Cocoa Outlook. We have revised our estimates for the global cocoa supply-demand position for the current, 2009-2010 season, and now envisage a deficit of 63,000t, against our previous estimate of a 56,000t deficit. This bigger deficit results from a reduction in our estimates for output from Ivory Coast (mid crop), Brazil and Indonesia. While there has been some suggestion in the cocoa market of a much bigger deficit than our forecast, we argue that the recent record high cocoa prices will slow the pace of demand recovery; cocoa processors and manufacturers will attempt to ride out the record prices by reducing wherever possible their consumption of cocoa. This will to some extent counter-balance the lower output. It remains the case that we expect the 2009-2010 season to be the fourth successive season of a global supply-demand deficit. The report also carries the usual full range of news and analysis of soft commodities, including coffee, sugar and grains.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly December

      • The December issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly is published today. In this final edition for 2009, we publish our forecasts for the year ahead and conclude that 2010 will be tumultuous period for energy prices but also that renewables will stand out as a very profitable sector. Plus we take a look at the impact of windfarms on adjacent property prices. And of course, we include all our regular coverage of renewables worldwide.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 13th December 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Metals Monthly December

      • In the December 2009 issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis metals monthly, we have three features on PGMs : The prospect of gold replacing platinum in autocatalysts; Chinese jewellery sales and South Africa's electricty problems.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 7th December 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group North American Energy Monthly December

      • The December edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group North American Energy Monthly includes VM Group's unique wide-ranging forecasts for energy market in 2010, plus a profile of US Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. We also include all the regular comprehensive news and analyses of the North American energy markets, from coal to nuclear power.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 4th December 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Energy Monthly December

      • In our final BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Energy Monthly for 2009 we publish the VM Group's price forecasts for 2010 crude oil, natural gas and other energy commodities, as well as reviewing how our 2009 forecasts have fared. We demonstrate that, as the report says, "our combined 2008-2009 forecasts mean that we have accurately plotted the general course of crdue oil prices for the past 23 months" - and we are confident of our projections for 2010, too. The December report also examines how governments around the world are carefully building up strategic crude oil reserves, before the next price boom. Along with these two features we also publish our regular round-up of news and analysis of the whole gamut of energy products, including carbon trading.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 2nd December 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly November

      • The November issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly is now available, giving our insight into the short and longer term outlook for precious and base metals, as well as an update of hedge fund performance. Our two features this month focus on nickel and gold. The analysis examines nickel's short and medium-term price risks, with regards to its fundamentals, and our focus piece looks at what risks lie in the supply/demand balance that could push gold lower in 2010.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Agricommodities Monthly November

      • Today we publish the November issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly, which is a Sugar Outlook. In our estimate the recent sugar price volatility could last as long as the next 12 months, as the international market grapples with the uncertainties surrounding the 2009-2010 season's output by India and yet another round of global de-stocking. While a spike to $0.30/pound is feasible, given this uncertainty and a probable return to pre-recession demand growth in 2010, we envisage that being a likely top, as it would imply a rise of around 40% over current futures' prices - a very tough call indeed, given that sugar prices have already gained more than 80% since the start of 2009. As well as our detailed analysis of the sugar market we have a feature on the demand outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, in the context of very large global harvests expected in 2009-2010, and our regular round-up of news and analysis on a wide range of other soft commodities.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 20th November 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Yellow Book - November 09

      • VM Group's bi-annual survey of the gold market has now been released. It contains feature articles on CBGA likely sales and India's gold market, as well as charts and tables covering all aspect of the international gold market.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Wednesday 18th November 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly

      • The November issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly is published today. As well as the regular round-up of news and analysis of key events in the renewable energy world, we have two features. The first examines how Native American Indians may control the key to expansion of renewable energy projects in the US - the White House is going out of its way to build good relations with the tribes. We also take a look at 'vampire energy' - a sinister term and a nasty waste of resources. The explosion in consumer electronics is the guilty party, but the war on wasted standby power is gathering pace.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Metals Monthly November

      • The BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthly for November is now available, giving our analysis of the short and longer term outlook for precious and base metals and price forecasts, as well an update of hedge fund performance. Our two features this month focus on the Royal Bank of India's (RBI) recent purchase of gold from the IMF, and on index rebalancing. The announcement by the RBI that it had purchased 200t of gold from the IMF was extremely bullish for the gold price - resulting in new nominal records highs. Does RBI's move imply a seachange in attitude by central banks towards gold as a store of wealth following years of selling? As for index rebalancing, it is that time of year again when the dominant S&P GSCI and Dow-Jones UBS announce their re-weightings according to certain, established, criteria. We assess the impact on prices due to the rebalancing of funds tracking these indices.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 17th November 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Gold Hedging and Financial Gold Report

      • The BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Gold Hedging and Financial Gold Report for Q3 2009 is now available. Gold hedging fell by a large 3.3 Moz (102t) in the third quarter, taking the global total down to just 11.5 Moz. We forecast this could fall to 10 Moz by year-end.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 13th November 2009

    • Gary Mead appeared on Indian TV to discuss sugar prices

      • For more VM Group in the news click here.

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly October

      • The BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly for October is now available, giving our analysis of the short and longer term outlook for precious and base metals and price forecasts, as well as an update of hedge fund performance. Our two features this month focus on silver demand and a political and economic look at globalisation with regards to the November 2009 APEC meeting. Silver offtake has been declining for many years on weakening demand from the photographic sector, but could new applications take up the surplus and indeed tighten the market considerably? We investigate new potential end uses and estimate their impact where possible. The globalisation piece focuses on the shift in power towards the Pacific coast of Asia, which has accelerated during the recession. Is the world ready for the Chinese juggernaut?

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 10th November 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Energy Monthly November

      • The November 2009 edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Energy Monthly is published today. It carries all the regular round up of new and analysis on the main energy markets from crude oil, through nuclear to carbon trading. The two featured this month offer a study in contrasts. One tackles the issue of how the main crude oil producers are aligning themselves to make a case for being considered at Copenhagen in December, where the summit on climate change will try to reach a fresh international deal to bring down global emissions of greenhouse gases. That spells only one thing for the likes of Opec - less demand for their main source of revenue, over the longer term. Will their calls for some financial assistance to help them change their economic dependency on oil gain a receptive audience? The second feature delves into the icy (if not murky) waters of the Arctic, where the race is well underway to stake out claims for the region's supposedly massive reserves of oil and natural gas. Could this race spark new conflicts? Or might it all be divided up amicably? And what's the market price for a polar bear? We have an answer...

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 5th November 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group North American Energy Monthly November

      • The November edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group North American Energy Monthly examines recent developments in US government policy towards the Outer Continental Shelf. Our other feature looks at the emerging debate opening over the hidden costs and benefits of coal-fired power generation. And, of course, we offer you the regular comprehensive news and analyses of the North American energy markets, covering everything from natural gas to middle distillates.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 30th October 2009

    Thursday 29th October 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Agricommodities Monthly October

      • The October edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Agricommodity report is a Coffee Outlook and gives our updated estimates for the global coffee supply-demand balance for 2009-2010. As well as this in-depth analysis of the coffee markets, and our regular monthly coverage of a broad spectrum of soft commodities, the report this month takes a close look at commodity index funds and their impact. We also talk to Mike McGlone, Senior Director of Commodity Indexing at S&P, which licenses the S&P GCSI, the world's biggest commodity index.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 26th October 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthly October

      • The BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthly for October is now available, giving our analysis of the short and longer term outlook for precious and base metals and price forecasts, as well as an update of hedge fund performance. Our two features this month focus on copper, and on commodity index funds. The copper price has soared in 2009, based largely on apparent Chinese demand - can this last? Possibly not - but in the next few years the outlook for copper is of an approaching supply crunch and that will be very supportive of higher prices. As for commodity index funds, the CFTC is releasing more detailed information on such funds, which enables us to gauge more accurately their impact on commodity markets.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 19th October 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly

      • Carbon taxes - new kid on the block. Suddenly, carbon taxes are in vogue, but what do either French President Sarkozy and the head of ExxonMobil see in them? We also look at the economics of offshore windfarm technology and see what future developments are unfolding. Plus the usual worldwide roundup of all the important renewable energy news.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 13th October 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Energy Monthly October

      • The October issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Energy Report is now published. As well as all the regular round-up of news and analysis of the major energy markets, our two features this month as usual delve behind the scenes of key energy matters. One takes an in-depth look at France's plans for a carbon tax - this might build into a EU-wide trend in the coming years, as other governments seek ways to combine revenue-raising with hitting carbon emission reduction targets. The other thinks the unthinkable - could Russia finally be ready to work cooperatively with mutinational partners in developing its massive but under-exploited energy resources? Maybe - but there are a lot of hurdles ahead, for all concerned.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Thursday 1st October 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly September

      • The September edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly casts the spotlight on the perils of over-production in China's steel sector. The rapid build-up of a large crude steel surplus within China is likely to depress the nascent recovery in steel prices in other markets, as this surplus tries to find a home outside China. In our other feature this month we pose the question "how important are commodity index funds?", in the light of a new quearterly report from the CFTC, called Index Investment Data. Plus all the regular news and views on the main Asian metals' markets.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 13th October 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Energy Monthly October

      • The October issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Energy Report is now published. As well as all the regular round-up of news and analysis of the major energy markets, our two features this month as usual delve behind the scenes of key energy matters. One takes an in-depth look at France's plans for a carbon tax - this might build into a EU-wide trend in the coming years, as other governments seek ways to combine revenue-raising with hitting carbon emission reduction targets. The other thinks the unthinkable - could Russia finally be ready to work cooperatively with mutinational partners in developing its massive but under-exploited energy resources? Maybe - but there are a lot of hurdles ahead, for all concerned.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Monday 5th October 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group North American Energy Monthly October

      • The September edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group North American Energy Monthly offers some insights into the recent collapse in natural gas prices, and then looks at why the time has come for the US government to revamp the Tennessee Valley Authority. Plus all the regular news and analysis of the global energy markets, from middle distillates to nuclear power.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Wednesday 30th September 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Agricommodities Monthly September

      • The September issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis Agricommodity Monthly is a Cocoa Outlook, and it gives our latest estimates for the global supply-demand balance for cocoa during the 2009-2010 season. We are anticipating the fourth successive season of world deficit in cocoa, with stocks at their lowest for some time - and futures prices have been reflecting this probable outcome. The development of the current El Nino has been arrested, according to the latest estimates from various long-range forecasters, but it has not necessarily petered out and could return later in the year - we are living in a period of uncertainty about this important climatic event, and it will continue to overhang our estimates for the cocoa balance. As well as our cocoa analysis, we have a feature on the chance of a successful conclusion to the Doha round of negotiations on free trade, in the light of the recent G20 summit in Pittsburgh. And we also provide our latest assessments in a wide range of other soft commodities.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Wednesday 23rd Sepetember 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthly September

      • The September issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthly puts under the microscope the new-style Commitment of Traders' report from the CFTC - and concludes that all the hullabaloo was in vain. It might give us more detail, but no greater insight into the perennially vexing question, 'do speculative investors push up prices?' Our other main feature looks at the short and long-term supply-demand balance for lead. We conclude that, despite a sizeable chunk of China's lead smelting going off-line, there's little real likelihood of a global deficit either this year or next. But, longer-term, matters are very different. Plus all our regular news and analysis of base and precious metals.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Thursday 17th September 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly

      • Intractable bystanders become paragons of forward-thinking in the climate change debate. In the September edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis Renewable Energy Monthly we look at the green revolution in China and then at the increasing role governments are playing in pushing advances in electric vehicles. Plus all the latest renewable energy news from around the world.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Tuesday 8th September 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Energy Monthly September

      • The September issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Energy Monthly is now available. As well as our regular news and analysis on all energy topics from gasoline to carbon trading, we publish two in-depth features. The first looks at how the pressure on refinery margins in the industrialised world is opening up space for more intensive competition from refiners in emerging markets. The second - "Sucking the North Sea Dry" - details the decline in North Sea oil and gas output, and highlights the looming energy crunch that awaits those most exposed to this problem - not least being the UK.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Friday 4th September 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group North American Energy Monthly September

      • The October edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group North American Energy Monthly looks at recent M&A activity in the oil and gas sector and highlights a few possible unwilling players in this game. We also explain why the US government’s royalty-in-kind program has been killed off. Plus all the regular news and analysis of the global energy markets, from middle distillates to nuclear power.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Thursday 3rd September 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Agricommodities Monthly August

      • India's failed monsoon has set sugar prices on fire, rising to their highest in almost 29 years. The August edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group agricommodity monthly - which focuses on the sugar market - is thus very timely. Where might sugar prices be headed? It will be tough for them to make a 29-year high - back in November 1980 the price hit more than 45 cents/pound, while to beat the record (more than 65 cents/pound in November 1974) looks even more testing. But the stage is set for India to be a big sugar importer in 2010, simply to cover domestic consumption; and Indian government stocks are now extremely low and it will be an urgent political concern to rebuild them quickly. As usual, the report also covers a range of other agricommodities, from cocoa to soybeans.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

    Thursday 27th August 2009

    • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly August

      • The remarkable rally in base metals so far this year has had everyone scratching their head - shouldn't gold outperform during an economic crisis and global recession? Yet the copper price has almost effortlessly rallied by more than 100% since the start of 2009, while gold has struggled to rise by 10% over the same period. This is counter-intuitive and goes against the tide of previous experience, according to the analysis contained in our main feature for August, which compares and contrasts gold and copper during recessions. Typically, gold does better in recessions, copper worse. So we have further fresh evidence that this recession is not behaving the same as previous ones. Contrariwise, copper normally does better than gold during economic booms - so will this unusual pattern continue, with gold doing better than copper once we have left this recession behind us? We doubt it - because the big change in this recession is that China's industrial activity is more important than ever before. Our other feature this month looks at exchange trade funds, which have proved so successful in precious metals in attracting fresh investment demand. Plus all the regular news and analysis of key base metals and steel as reflected in Asian markets, and our latest updated prices forecasts and market data.

      For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Wednesday 26th August 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Materials in Transport

        • The August edition of BNP Paribas Fortis Materials in Transport, which has just been released, covers all aspects of commodities' usage in transport applications. Our feature story looks at lithium (a key component of the batteries used in the electric transport sector), examines its demand and supply prospects and provides much key background information on this unusual commodity. The 41 page report also looks in detail at new legislation affecting transport, how car sales and production are recovering after the historical slump seen in late 2008/early 2009, and the latest technological trends that will have a bearing on commodities' demand.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Monday 24th August 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthly August

        • August is typically a month when things begin to slow down - but not this year. There's too much at stake in the global economy, poised as it apparently now is, on the brink of an uncertain recovery. This month's report - apart from our regular news and views, price forecasts and market data updates - has two features that tackle aspects of the base metals' markets that will be vital to any sustained recovery. The first looks at how China has overplayed its hand in the current negotiations about setting an annual benchmark price for its iron ore contract with the major suppliers. The second argues that while the copper price has probably got ahead of itself in recent months, the political risk factors concerning new mine sources suggest a very tight supply-demand picture is just over the horizon.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Friday 14th August 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly

        • The zero-carbon race hots up. Who wants to be the first zero-carbon country? In the August edition of the BNP Paribas Fortis Renewable Energy Monthly we look at the competitors in this unique race and assess their chances of winning a place in the history books. Also, we highlight the next generation of superconductors and how they will revolutionise the power industry. Plus all the latest renewable energy news from around the world.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Tuesday 11th August 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Hedging and Financial Gold Report - Q2 09

        • Global gold hedging fell by a larger than expected 1.2 Moz in Q2 09, resuming its trend decline after Q1 09's pause. The largest dehedger was AngloGold Ashanti, who cut 0.65 Moz from their book. Despite the reduction, the pace of dehedging is declining as the outstanding positions shrink. On a year-on-year basis dehedging in Q2 09 was 4.0 Moz, the lowest it has been since we began collecting detailed quarterly records in 2001. Then the global hedgebook was over 100 Moz. Looking ahead dehedging is likely to continue at a modest pace for the rest of the year as AngloGold Ashanti have already announced a further 0.74 Moz in Q3 09, and have promised further reductions by year-end.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Friday 7th August 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group North American Energy Monthly August

        • Our August issue looks at the forthcoming battle in the Senate on the future of Obama's climate change legislation; we raise the question - what place does ethics have in the oil industry? Plus our usual comprehensive analysis of all the key North American energy markets - from oil & gas, through coal, gasoline and distillates, to nuclear power.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Energy Monthly August

        • The August BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Energy Monthly looks at crude oil prices, which have continued to defy market fundamentals, bringing fresh criticism of "speculators" and encouraging the US authorities to investigate how much, if at all, buyers of oil who have no intention of consuming it are responsible for the current situation. Action intended to prevent speculations looks certain, kicking off with stricter and lower position limits on those investing directly in exchange-trade commodity futures. The second feaure is a new climate deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol is due at the end of the year but the chances of real success look no more than even. Everything hinges on China and the US and their readiness to find a meeting of minds over how best and how extensively to cut carbon emissions. Plus our usual comprehensive analysis of all the key energy markets - from oil & gas, through coal, gasoline and distillates, to nuclear power.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Thursday 31th July 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly July

        • The main features in July's issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly is a focus on gold, and 1H 2009 in retrospect. The analysis section updates on developments in the IMF's sale of 403t of gold, which will be within a new central bank gold agreement, while the copper focus considers the drivers behind the metal's quite meteoric rise from the ashes this year, while examining its medium to long-term fundamentals. This includes a look into the major projects that could potentially come online in the next seven years. The second focus looks back at the price behaviour across both base and precious metals in 1H 2009. Plus all the regular price forecasts, updates on LME stocks and news pages.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Thursday 30th July 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis Bank/VM Group Agricommodities Monthly July

        • Our July issue of the BNP Paribas/Fortis Agricommodity monthly picks apart the hyperbole surrounding El Nino, and itemises those regions and commodities that are most likely to see the biggest impact from the event, if it establishes itself later this year. The focus this month is on coffee and we have revised our estimates for the 2009-2010 global suply-demand outlook.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Monday 20th July 2009

      • BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthly July

        • The July issue of the BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Metals Monthy has our usual detailed coverage of all base and precious metals and our updated price forecasts. The two features this month scrutinise how base and precious metals have fared during 1H 2009 and consider what lies ahead for them for the rest of the year; and in the second we look at the trials and tribulations of the LME's struggle with plastics contracts - which are about to disappear from open outcry as a result of poor volumes.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      • BNP Paribas Fortis/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly July

        • The July edition of the BNP Paribas/Fortis Renewable Energy report contains the regular round-up of news and analysis of events from around the world, plus two focus features. In the first, we demonstrate that, despite continued gloom in traditional investment areas, some countries are poised to experience a boom in renewable energy projects. And in the second part of our series on zero-carbon, we look at Masdar City and other examples of renewable energy scaled up to urban living.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Thursday 2nd July 2009

      • Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly June

        • The two main features in June's issue of the Fortis Bank/VM Group Asian Metals Monthly focus on China and aluminium. For us, the "decoupling" theory regarding China, which argued essentially that its economy had become big enough to prevent it being hit by the recession, never rang true. China has suffered too. What's needed now is some planning about how best to re-couple the rest of the world's economy to that of China. The aluminium feature inevitably considers China too. Its policy of supporting the country's domestic smelters by creating strategic stockpiles of the metal has helped them to survive - but only at the risk of a much longer, drawn-out structural problem for the global aluminium market. We face the risk of this market's supply-demand fundamentals becoming much more opaque. Plus all the regular price forecasts, updates of LME stocks and news pages on other base and precious metals.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Tuesday 23rd June 2009

      • Fortis Bank/VM Group Metals Monthly June

        • The first of our two features considers the spurning of Chinalco by Rio Tinto. This has bruised Chinese feelings but more important will mean much tougher pricing power over iron ore supplies swings back to the producers. Inevitably at some point the annual iron ore contract will crumble away - but that will be no bad thing. And we look at silver - which has more positive supply-demand fundamentals than for many years.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Thursday 11th June 2009

      • Fortis Bank/VM Group Renewable Energy Monthly June

        • The first of our two features looks at ethical investing, and asks: is renewable energy poised on the bring of an investment boom? The second studies energy efficiency drives in the US and Europe - where some of the worst culprits are the homes we live in and the offices where we work.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      Friday 5th June 2009

      • Fortis Bank/VM Group North American Energy Monthly June

        • In addition to all the regular news and analysis of the global energy markets, from natgas to carbon emissions' trading, it contains two features. The first looks at the deep misgivings that are emerging over Barack Obama's stance on nuclear power and whether it is being sidelined in preference to other energy sources. Our second feature examines how Washington is relaxing its political stance on Cuba, which is set to launch a huge offshore drilling program in the Gulf of Mexico, to which everyone but the US has been invited.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

      • Fortis Bank/VM Group Energy Monthly June

        • There are two main features. The first details why the spot price of uranium oxide is going to recover back towards $65-$70/pound by the end of 2009, and is likely to rise higher than that in the long-term, as supply lags likely demand growth. The second argues that the balance of power between nations owning oil reserves, and international oil majors wanting to exploit those reserves, has tilted in favour of the latter - and that they are demanding tougher terms. Plus all the regular news and analysis of the global energy markets, from natgas to carbon emissions' trading.

        For back issues and background information on the report, click here.

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