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METALS-Copper rises on weak dollar, recovery bets

LONDON, 16th September 2009 (Reuters) By Humeyra Pamuk and Maytaal Angel

Copper climbed over 3 percent on Wednesday helped by a weak dollar and as positive U.S. data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reinforced the view that the economy is on the road to recovery.

Stock markets and other commodities including gold climbed after Bernanke said on Tuesday the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression was probably over. The dollar fell versus a basket of currencies, making dollar-priced metals cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

Copper MCU3 for three months delivery on the London Metal Exchange closed at $6,415 a tonne versus $6,210 at the close on Tuesday. Earlier it hit a near one week high of $6,420.25.

"The dollar's under pressure again so you get a round of buyers coming in close to the U.S. open. The consensus is clearly bullish, it's difficult to find anyone bearish any more which is a danger sign," said Jesper Dannesboe, senior commodity strategist at Societe Generale.

He added, however: "If you look at everything but gold and silver, sentiment for commodities has actually weakened a bit so you really need copper and WTI (U.S. crude oil) to take out recent highs to confirm near-term positive sentiment."

Earlier, U.S. data showed industrial production rose for a second consecutive month in August, reinforcing hopes the economy is on the mend.

The data also showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August, but overall risk of inflation in the economy remained low.

"If anything the data shows that the Fed (will) keep the pedal to the metal, keep recovery coming along," said David Thurtel, an analyst at Citigroup.

On Tuesday, U.S. data showed retail sales rose in August at the fastest pace in 3-1/2 years and a gauge of New York State manufacturing activity hit a near two-year high.

LIMITED UPSIDE?

Despite expectations of a recovery, copper inventories reflected poor demand, capping further gains in prices.

"The bullish impact arising from favourable macro data and the weaker dollar seem to be bumping against the weaker fundamentals...typified by rising LME stocks and a deceleration of Chinese import growth," said analyst Edward Meir at MF Global in a research note.

"We suspect that the fundamentals will tip the balance somewhat and lead to slightly lower prices over the September/October time period," he said. LME copper inventories rose 675 tonnes on Wednesday to 323,225 tonnes, up nearly a quarter since July. Copper imports to China were down for the second month in a row in August, falling 20 percent from July.

Nickel MNI3 closed up over 3 percent higher at a bid of $17,250 a tonne, while battery making material lead MPB3 closed up at $2,294 from $2,166.50, having earlier risen over 6 percent to $2,300 as worries over smelter shutdowns in China lingered despite reports some smelters could re-start production.

"If you thought the longs had got it wrong and were quitting their positions open interest should fall and it hasn't so that suggests that when those stories about potential re-openings came out some people didn't buy it."

Elsewhere, aluminium MAL3 closed up at a one week high of $1,927 a tonne from $1,855. LME data showed stocks hit a new record high of 4.629 million tonnes.

Zinc MZN3 closed up over 4 percent $1,937 a tonne versus $1,861, while tin MSN3 ended at $14,600 a tonne from $14,225. Analysts said there is no shortage of material, with LME tin stocks having risen above 22,000 tonnes from 3,015 last November.

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