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Research and analysis of precious and base metals, energy, agribusiness and renewables.
Latest reports
Tuesday 15th November 2011
- VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 15th November
The VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 7th November 2011
- VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 7th November
The VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 31st October 2011
- VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 31st October 2011
The VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 24th October 2011
- VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 24th October 2011
The VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 17th October 2011
- VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 17th October 2011
The VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 10th October 2011
- VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 10th October 2011
The VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 3rd October 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly - September 2011 | Press release
VM Group in partnership with ABN AMRO today publishes the September 2011 edition of The Agricommodities Monthly, which reports on and analyses key developments in the global markets for agricommodities.
The September issue is a Sugar Quarterly. Our previous estimate, from our last Sugar Quarterly (published in June 2011) was that the period between Q4 2010, up to and including Q3 2011, would see a global deficit of 1.45 million MTRV. We have raised our global supply estimate from the June report to 174.01 million MTRV, while our consumption estimate is now 167.61 million MTRV, giving an overall surplus by the end of Q3 2012 of 6.4 million MTRV.
We envisage significant choke points emerging in Q2-Q3 2012, with deficits of 7.6 million MTRV and 5.24 million MTRV respectively. International sugar prices therefore ought to ease in the six months between the last quarter of this year and the end of the first quarter of next calendar year, although much depends on weather factors and the propensity of major potential importers – notably China – to buy, if prices prove sufficiently tempting.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 3rd October 2011
The VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 26th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 26th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly - 26th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly report provides a clear and comprehensive weekly snapshot of this market.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 19th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 19th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly - 19th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly report provides a clear and comprehensive weekly snapshot of this market.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Carbon Weekly - 19th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group Carbon Weekly report covers trading risk, market fundamentals and provides a clear and comprehensive weekly snapshot of this increasingly important market.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Friday 16th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Metals Monthly - September 2011 | Press release
In the September 2011 issue of Metals Monthly, published by VM Group and ABN AMRO Bank, we examine the immediate prospects for the copper price with special attention to whether Chinese copper imports will grow or fall over the next few months. We also identify significant downside risk to the price through 2012 and 2013, on the expectation of recession in the advanced economies, and a sharp increase in mine supply. That said, we expect the copper price to find support through scaled-down Chinese buying, with prices unlikely to yield more than 10%-20% from current levels for any sustained period of time.
We have revised lower our base metals price forecasts in light of the global slowdown in demand anticipated in 2012. We expect copper to average $7,300/t,from a previous $8,563/t, and nickel and tin to average $20,867/t and $19,708/t, respectively, from $23,663/t and $27,354/t. The downward revision in our price forecasts is reflected by weaker supply-demand fundamentals, with copper now forecast to be in surplus in 2012.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 12th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 12th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly - 12th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly report provides a clear and comprehensive weekly snapshot of this market.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Carbon Weekly - 12th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group Carbon Weekly report covers trading risk, market fundamentals and provides a clear and comprehensive weekly snapshot of this increasingly important market.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Thursday 8th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group World Agronomy Report - September 2011 | Press release
The ABN AMRO/VM Group World Agronomy Report - September. Building grain reserves – storing or hoarding: As unpredictable weather impacts on virtually every crop, we look at the role storage will play in smoothing out disruptions to supply and demand for food.
Elsewhere in World Agronomy, we look at: Japan sticks to carbon targets; Australia and EU discuss linking their carbon trading platforms; South Africa sketches out shape of new land regulations; New Zealand farmland prices continue to free-fall; Fresh round of investment in Brazilian biofuels; UK farm input costs rise 13%; Mexican food prices drop; First boardroom casualty at Sino-Forest; Guinea-Bissau looks for record cashew nut exports; Poles taunt GM sector with idea of EU ban.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Wednesday 7th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Energy Monthly - September 2011 | Press release
“Gaddafi on the Run – Lower Gas Prices on the way”. The US newspaper headline was not only a little premature – it was possibly even wrong. The revolution in Libya was never about control of the country’s huge oil and gas reserves though, no doubt, they heightened the resolve of western countries to help bring about an end to the despotic reign of Muammar Gaddafi. Now, as Libyan rebel and NATO forces try to track down the man who used brute force and corruption to run his own fiefdom for four decades, political and economic reconstruction is already underway. But given the chaotic infrastructure in the battleweary country and with recriminations and even tribal in-fighting likely, how quickly can the world’s 12th largest crude oil exporter recover?
The prospects for the international crude oil market following regime change in Libya forms the feature of this month’s VM Group/ABN AMRO Energy Monthly. Before Libya descended into civil war it was producing an average 1.6m bpd of crude, a modest 2% of global supplies and a droplet compared to the output of most other Opec member states. Around 90% of its production was sold overseas, with oil and gas together representing around 92% of the government’s annual revenues. Its return to full production will help cool crude oil prices – but bigger factors, not least the state of global economic growth – will dwarf the Libya factor.
The September edition of the Energy Monthly also carries our regular update on prices of all major energy products, snapshots of speculative investment movements, a concise summary of all major energy-related news, and an updated series of crude oil supply-demand data from the IEA, EIA and Opec.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Tuesday 6th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Agricommodity Monthly - August 2011 | Press release
VM Group in partnership with ABN AMRO today publishes the August 2011 edition of The Agricommodities Monthly, which reports on and analyses key developments in the global markets for agricommodities.
The August issue is a Coffee Quarterly. For the time being, we see no reason to alter our estimate for the global balance for the 2010-2011 season now in its closing months, and retain our estimate of a projected arabica surplus of 5.64m 60-kg bags, and a global robusta surplus of 4.89m bags. Our estimate for total arabica production is held at 85.14m bags, with consumption at 79.50m bags; total robusta output we estimate will be 55.71m bags and consumption 50.82m bags. For the approaching 2011-2012 season we still see output from South America improving with a global arabica surplus for the October-September season (which we also apply to Brazil) of 0.69m bags based on a production estimate of 80.97m bags and demand of 80.28m bags. The robusta surplus is still forecast to drop from 2010-2011 levels to 4.07m bags with production of 55.39m bags and demand of 51.32m bags. The end of the most recent La Niña weather event will see the return to more normal output levels of both arabica and robusta.
In addition, the report each month carries a commodity-related feature. In this issue we look at Ethanol in the US. The rise and fall of ethanol in the US public imagination has been nothing short of spectacular. Heralded as a saviour against foreign oil interests barely five years ago, the US Senate recently voted to pull the financial rug from under the ethanol industry. So, where did it all go wrong?
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
Monday 5th September 2011
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly - 5th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group Precious Metal Investment Weekly follows key trends in the major futures markets and exchange-traded funds for all four precious metals.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly - 5th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group European Petroleum Weekly report provides a clear and comprehensive weekly snapshot of this market.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
- ABN AMRO/VM Group Carbon Weekly - 5th September 2011
The ABN AMRO/VM Group Carbon Weekly report covers trading risk, market fundamentals and provides a clear and comprehensive weekly snapshot of this increasingly important market.
For back issues and background information on the report, click here.
For archived latest reports, click here.
VM Group: responding proactively to the current and future state of the commodity markets
In today's volatile commodity markets, independent and authoritative analysis is more vital than ever before. The VM Group responds to your needs.
The VM Group is a dynamic team of highly experienced analysts dedicated to understanding and explaining all widely traded commodities.
We excel in macro-economic analysis, the generation of supply and demand scenarios, cost analysis, derivative research and price forecasting. Confidentiality, experience and independence are key elements of such advisory roles. We assist those in need of external expertise, as well as those who wish to supplement their own in-house resources. With our extensive international contacts, we provide links with experienced associates in related fields worldwide.